Macro Insights Weekly - A year without rate cuts?

6 May 2024


  • Over three trading days last week, global fixed income markets swung from despair to hope. This type of volatility is a marker of things to come as the 2024 rate cut scenario is priced in and out.
  • We think there is a room for rate cut as inflation and jobs momentum is on track to fade.
  • Stickiness of inflation in recent months could fade on the back of easing energy and rental costs.
  • Parts of the jobs market are showing early signs of cooling, but overall trend is still positive.
  • There is a 25% chance, in our view, that inflation and jobs momentum doesn't ease.
  • Then expect considerable bond and current volatiliy as pricing would shift toward no rate cuts.