Macro Insights Weekly: What will mark China's trough?

14 August 2023


  • China’s cyclical soft patch keeps deepening, as underscored by a wide range of recent data spanning from retail sales to credit, prices to exports. We examine what is needed for a trough to form.
  • Post pandemic recovery has been underwhelming due to weak business and consumer confidence
  • Intersection of weak property prices and a mountain of debt in the sector is a major fault line
  • What’s needed?
    • decisive move to address local government debt
    • targeted measures to restructure property sector, with active private sector participation
    • easing of regulations on entrepreneurial activities