Macro Insights Weekly - Wars, high rates, asset prices

23 October 2023


  • The economic horizon is clouded by wars and ever rising rates. Asset markets have held up remarkably well, but we worry that risks are insufficiently priced.
  • The key concern is the loss of lives and societal scars left by wars.
  • There are broader consequences as well for regional stability and superpower relations.
  • We are not particularly concerned about the middle-east situation causing an oil price spike.
  • Beyond oil, the global economy is already dealing with a major shock—interest rates.
  • The impact of higher rates has been remarkably muted so far, but we don’t think that would last.