Macro Insights Weekly - Trade distortion/diversion

Asia's exporters are negative about the outlook, but for the time being, they are hunkering down. The divergence between PMI readings and actual exports is striking.
Through April, ASEAN-6 exports growth was on an uptrend, marking a sharp divergence from PMIs.
Vietnam's vulnerability to reciprocal tariff is high, but exports to the US are presently surging.
China's overall exports are up, but exports to the US are plunging.
Trade is being front-loaded, transshipped, diverted.
Watch for trade numbers to follow sentiments, not the other way round.