Will 2024 be the year when the global economy takes time out from the post pandemic recovery, burdened by the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, and beset by the uncertainties emanating from China?
- Base case: The burden of high rates weighs in on US and EU demand, but a recession is unlikely.
- China continues to clean up its property and tech sectors, while keeping growth above 4%.
- Asean, helped by a bottoming electronics cycle and tourism, has upside next year.
- Benign inflation and China rebound are two upside risks.
- Financial sector accident and debt crises are key downside risks.