Macro Insights Weekly - Odd case of US disinflation and surging growth
28 August 2023
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Defying substantial interest rate hikes, the US economy is on course to mark a historically strong third quarter. Currently, real growth for the quarter is tracking 4-5%+
Consumption, investment, and housing are either holding firm or rebounding.
We don’t think more rate hikes are coming, but we think rate cuts are far.
Strong growth and surging rates have yet to dent dollar funding or credit conditions.
Inflation is waning, reflecting supply chain normalisation and Fed hikes.
The Fed wants the market to believe “higher for longer”; this is unlikely to help equities.