Macro Insights Weekly - Odd case of US disinflation and surging growth

28 August 2023


  • Defying substantial interest rate hikes, the US economy is on course to mark a historically strong third quarter. Currently, real growth for the quarter is tracking 4-5%+
  • Consumption, investment, and housing are either holding firm or rebounding.
  • We don’t think more rate hikes are coming, but we think rate cuts are far.
  • Strong growth and surging rates have yet to dent dollar funding or credit conditions.
  • Inflation is waning, reflecting supply chain normalisation and Fed hikes.
  • The Fed wants the market to believe “higher for longer”; this is unlikely to help equities.