Macro Insights Weekly - Complacent Markets

Strong real GDP growth numbers and soft inflation figures have set the US markets ablaze. We welcome market rallies, but are wary of complacency among market participants.
US stock market has been setting records and volatility markers have collapsed.
Credit spreads have compressed to nearly all-time lows.
US market cheer however has not had a salutary impact worldwide.
Non-AI chip demand softness and risk of delays in Fed cuts are weighing in.
Near term market risks include oil prices and resiliency of the US labour market.