Macro Insights Weekly - Assessing disinflation

16 January 2024


  • Global inflation has come down considerably in the past year or so. But the last mile of disinflation, i.e., the journey toward the inflation target of central banks, is likely to be bumpy.
  • Goods prices are now subtracting from inflation, but there may not be much downside left.
  • Services disinflation can only take hold if job losses mount.
  • Continued rental disinflation would need support from the supply side.
  • Shipping and insurance costs are key risks in the near term around Red Sea tensions.
  • Food inflation may become a perennial risk around climate change.