ASEAN-6: Watching weather risks

8 August 2023


  • El NiƱo is expected to strengthen in 2H, especially in the winter months
  • Onset could be a stagflationary risk
  • The economic impact will be dictated by its severity
  • Besides hurting agriculture production and incomes, adverse weather could slow ongoing disinflation
  • We compare the ASEAN-6 countries on a few vulnerability metrics
  • Philippines is seen the most at risk, whilst Indonesia fares better on our comparative scale
  • Implications for forecasts: We maintain our inflation and monetary policy projections for the year