Macro Insights Weekly - Inflation watch (only in the US)

Globally, inflation risks are muted. One major exception to that narrative is the US, which is facing a striking policy-induced upward risk to the price level.
Backward looking price data do not pose much concern for the US.
But they are an inadequate reflection of underlying inflation risks.
Surveys of consumer and businesses alike point to substantial upside risk to prices.
A period of policy volatility may lead to higher inflation and interest rates.
On price pressures, we will look at guidance from big retailers first and then small businesses.