Insights

Macro Insights Weekly - Inflation watch (only in the US)

19 May 2025
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  • Globally, inflation risks are muted. One major exception to that narrative is the US, which is facing a striking policy-induced upward risk to the price level.  
  • Backward looking price data do not pose much concern for the US. 
  • But they are an inadequate reflection of underlying inflation risks. 
  • Surveys of consumer and businesses alike point to substantial upside risk to prices.
  • A period of policy volatility may lead to higher inflation and interest rates.
  • On price pressures, we will look at guidance from big retailers first and then small businesses.

 

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