Macro Insights Weekly - Upward momentum to start the year

We expect the late-year positive momentum characterising the global economy to spill over to the early part of 2026. We consider four positive trends and two risks.
From China to the US, economic activity is holding up better-than-expected.
Trade is flourishing, despite the US push toward protectionism.
Other than in Japan and the US, inflation is benign.
High sovereign debt burden notwithstanding, long-term rates are also on a stable footing for now.
Key risks are over-reliance on AI spending and ever escalating US hegemonic assertiveness.