Macro Insights Weekly - Time to shed complacency

Fed communication after its March meeting cheered the markets. Expectations of sizeable rate cuts in 2H24 are fuelling record highs in asset markets. What are the risks to this narrative?
Rallies are not restricted to the US. Stocks in Europe and Asia are also buoyant.
Asia's exports have turned a corner, supporting regional growth outlook.
But it would take only one or two more sticky inflation prints to damage rate cut expectations.
Some real economic data stand on the edge, between "resilien" and "weak".
We think the markets are not pricing sufficiently election and security risks.