Insights

Macro Insights Weekly - Six dimensions of US trade negotiations

21 April 2025
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  • Many nations are making overtures to the US to find a more lasting respite from the high "reciprocal" tariffs than the prevailing 90-day pause. What can they expect during negotiations?  
  • They would likely face demand for more purchases from the US and investment in the US.
  • Voluntary restriction of import from China and export restriction to the US could be on the table. 
  • Currency appreciation against the USD, a la Plaza Accord, is likely to be demanded.
  • Nations might even face pressure to mirror US tariffs on China.
  • These demands could generate considerable backlash and risk negotiation to fail.

 

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