Macro Insights Weekly - Second tariff deadline: reciprocity or retaliation?

Confidence in the next phase of the "Liberation Day" tariff pause-and-hope has diminished.
US' trade posture has hardened.
Add to this, tariffs also appear to be used as tools of geopolitical coercion and interference in domestic politics.
Trading partners recognize the importance of proactively preparing for a more demanding global trade environment.
All said, the deadline could sift again.
On FX, expect more correction in the EUR, GBP, and JPY.
On Rates, some amount of complacency is setting in amidst Goldilocks conditions.