Macro Insights Weekly - Implications of the strong US labour market

The US economy continues to chug away at above-trend growth rate, pulling up the labour market with it. This may slow down disinflation, but that would be a constructive backdrop.
The impressive jobs numbers reveal momentum in the services and public sectors.
Consumers, shocked by 2022 inflation spike, have belatedly begun to feel better.
We see gathering upside to GDP growth, revising up our 2024 forecast by 30bps to 2%.
Strong jobs and incomes may slow down the path of disinflation.
But a sharp rebound in inflation is unlikely, given the spate of supply side reforms underway.