Macro Insights Weekly - Risks of a fragmented Iran

The scale of the attack on Iran and its retaliation, the damage already inflicted, the heightened uncertainty about what comes next, are all rather extensive in scope. We consider some key risks.
Market implications are perhaps to the most linear.
Higher oil price and safe haven flows to USD and gold are on the cards.
But the conflict's fallout goes well beyond the short term.
A protracted conflict will be damaging to a large part of the Middle Eat.
Civil conflict within Iran has multiple international dimensions; spillover risks are substantial.