Macro Insights Weekly - Currency dynamics beyond a commodity shock

In the G-10 space, the dollar has weakened over the past 16 months and largely strengthened over the past two. For Asian FX, the narrative against the US Dollar is not that neat.
Since the beginning of 2025, regional currencies have essentially split up into three groups.
First, the ascendant exporters, benefitting from a strong electronics and commodity cycle.
Second, the ones under US pull. Despite strong exports, they face myriad challenges from the US.
Third, the three under pressure, with numerous headwinds.
These groupings may inform these currencies performance ahead.