Macro Insights Weekly - Could the next Fed move be a hike?

Powell's last meeting as Fed Chair won't mark the end of tensions regarding US monetary policy direction. Dataflow and political pressure could push the FOMC in opposing directions.
Powell leaves FOMC chair, stays Fed governor till Jan 2028; policy decision tensions likely.
Data strong: ISM upbeat, 1Q retail double-digit, GDP tracking 3%+.
Inflation risks up (energy/electronics); case to hold or even lean hawkish.
Base case shifts: Fed to drop dovish bias, move toward neutral-not hikes yet.
Forecast: we are removing the 2026 cuts; 2027 hikes possible if growth-inflation mix stays hot.