Macro Insights Weekly - Asia under El Nino

Besides the oil price overhang, El Nino presents a new episodic risk to monitor.
No two cycles are the same.
This period typically brings drier conditions to Southeast Asia and parts of South Asia, while increasing rainfall in some East Asian regions.
The share of agriculture in overall growth has declined, but it remains an important employer for most in the region.
Food inflation makes up about a quarter of the basket on aggregate.
Policy responses have evolved, driven by government expectations that climate change will intensify seasonal swings in weather, temperature, and rainfall.