Macro Insights Weekly - China's economic bifurcation

China's domestic demand is slowing, but strong exports and a thriving domestic tech cycle support a 2026 GDP growth forecast of 4.5%.
Domestic demand has weakened across retail, investment, credit, and property indicators.
Tech and new-economy firms are benefitting from strong bond and equity financing.
Core inflation below 1% limits concerns over deflation or price instability.
Exports and domestic tech cycle remain strong, offsetting weak domestic retail demand.